England vs Argentina: Undone in the last ten

A war of attrition, not a football match. Argentina see more of the ball early but most of it in their own half; England hold the territory and edge the second quarter-hour. The fouls pile up faster than the chances, and Bellingham and Messi get tangled and stay tangled.

Thirty minutes gone, combined xG: 0.00. Reports called it the first World Cup match since 1966 without a single shot in the opening half hour. Two heavyweights, both refusing to blink first.

Argentina start to squeeze, taking 58% of the touches in the run to half time. Yet it is England who sneak the slightly better sights of goal, 0.06 xG to 0.02. Which tells you how little either side created.

Half Time: ENG 0-0 ARG.

Argentina still have most of the ball after the break. Then at 54' the game jumps the rails. Lisandro Martinez only half-clears, Rice feeds Morgan Rogers on the right, and his cross is swept in at the back post by Anthony Gordon. A first World Cup goal, and England lead against the run of play.

At 0.38 xG it is England's one real chance of the night, and they take it. Now comes the hard part: 36 minutes of holding off the champions.

The siege begins. Scaloni throws forwards at the problem, Tuchel answers with defenders, pulling Gordon off and going to a back five. The effect is immediate and lopsided: Argentina take 73% of the touches in this quarter-hour while England barely cross halfway.

Nico Gonzalez heads a Messi cross at Pickford at 68' (0.14 xG). Then at 75' it nearly all collapses at once: Julian Alvarez misses from 0.29 xG and Alexis Mac Allister rattles the post with a 0.25 chance. England's lead is living on borrowed time.

The dam breaks. In the final 15 minutes Argentina generate 1.32 xG to England's 0.05, and the goals finally arrive, in exactly the wrong order of probability.

At 84', Messi lays a short corner into space and Enzo Fernandez, who had been trying his luck from range all night, rips one in from 25 yards. Just 0.035 xG, the scruffiest chance Argentina scored from all tournament, after every better one tonight had gone begging.

Then at 90', Mac Allister hits the post again, Messi collects the rebound and lofts a cross to an unmarked Lautaro Martinez, on the pitch nine minutes, who heads in the game's biggest chance (0.53 xG). Two assists for the 39-year-old, and a dedication to Maradona afterwards.

The ledger says it was coming: 15 shots to 5, 1.66 xG to 0.53. England retreated onto their own goal to protect a lead the numbers never supported, and paid in full. "Once we went 1-0 up we seemed to just try and hold on," said Harry Kane, "which at this level is just not enough." Argentina march on to face Spain in the final.

Full Time: ENG 1-2 ARG.

Explore Yourself

Drag the handles to frame any period, grab the band to slide it around, or press play to roll a window through the match.